In developing the Network and forming our ideas, we will have access to good source documents, such as those from the ESPAS network – the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System – which is currently carrying out an extensive exercise into 2030 global trends with regard to the challenges facing the European Union.
For all the latest documents please visit the Open Repository Base on International Strategic Studies (ORBIS) webpage. With over 1,000 documents, this brings the world’s largest library of prospective studies to your fingertips. Discover the long-term trends that will shape society.
You will find below key documents from ESPAS and other sources.
Shaping and securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond. This report is part of the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda. Desk research, including literature review and policy analysis, synthetises existing knowledge on the current state and future possibilities in 2040 and beyond. The report presents an overview of Europe’s existing capacities, dependencies and vulnerabilities. It also describes trends and emerging issues, looking forward at how they could evolve over time, and looking at the opportunities and risks they entail. Find out more here.
In the spring of 2019, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) issued its most recent, five-yearly Global Trends Report. Entitled ‘Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe’, To coincide with the latest ESPAS annual conference in November 2021, the ESPAS Steering Group issued a mid-term update that looks at what has changed over the last two and a half years, a period that has brought unexpected developments on several fronts. Find out more here.
The second annual Strategic Foresight Report, ‘The EU’s capacity and freedom to act’, presents a forward-looking and multidisciplinary perspective on important trends affecting the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades, including: climate change and other environmental challenges, digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations, pressure on democracy and values, as well as shifts in the global order and demography. Find out more here.
7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. Find out more here.
The structure and output of the ESPAS process to date were summarised in an EPRS Briefing published in May 2020 (below). This parallel ESPAS Briefing now looks at the substance of the analysis contained in the successive ESPAS Global Trends Reports to date.
The 2020 Strategic Foresight Report shows that action-driven strategic foresight is uniquely suited to inform decision-makers to drive the twin transitions and strengthen the EU’s resilience. For this purpose, this Communication presents as next steps: Prototype resilience dashboards as an example of a way of monitoring resilience.
This EPRS Briefing traces the origins of the ESPAS process and describes its operation to date, with the digital version of the briefing offering links to some of its key output since 2012.
The ESPAS Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe report is a contribution to support policy- and decision-makers as they navigate the world into 2030. The report extrapolates insights from current global trends; explore some of the key uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future; and better anticipate some of the choices and decisions that might confront us in the coming decade.
The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe report presents the findings of the research conducted for the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) on global economic trends up to the horizon of 2030 and how they matter for Europe. The report builds on extensive analytical research, a wide-ranging review of the literature and simulations with two macroeconomic models, one of global scale and one for the EU, providing new perspectives on issues relevant for today’s policy debate.
In 2011, the European Parliament gave the go-ahead for a second stage in the project – a so-called ‘Preparatory Action’ – with a view to putting in place by 2014 a permanent inter-institutional system to identify and analyse long-term trends.
In 2012, three inter-institutional working groups were set up to oversee an intensive analytical process, including outreach to those interested in engaging with ESPAS, in order to draft trend reports in three key fields: the economy, society, and governance and power. The process resulted in the publication of the report Global Trends to 2030: can the EU meet the challenges ahead?
Published in 2012, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, the report was aimed at stimulating strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. It distinguishes between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain.
The EU in 2030: a long-term view of Europe in a changing world: keeping the values, changing the attitudes by Margaritis Schinas. This article surveys the challenges and opportunities identified in the ESPAS report Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World (report below).
ESPAS was initiated in 2010, when a pilot project launched by the European Parliament laid the foundations for cooperation and dialogue between the four participating organisations. The result of this pilot was the publication of a report in the spring of 2012 by the EUISS entitled ‘Global Trends 2030 – Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World’ which assessed the long-term political and economic environment facing the EU. The report identified several global trends that will shape the world in 2030.