During our Summer University we focused on five of the most important trends – security; migration and demography; digital change; sustainable development; and trade and economics. All of these trends are interlinked having political, social and economic implications – which are likely to impact the UK and its’ neighbourhood through to 2030. We held a breakout session on each trend and the summaries of each session are given below...
Feedback - Security breakout
Key discussion points
- Some of the key security considerations will be the shifting geopolitical power and the rise of China.
- Peaceful rise of China will be a challenge, while China’s stability will be an even greater concern.
- Furthermore, some of major international challenges will be climate change, technological advancement, as well as demography and migration.
- These pressures will have an unequal impact on developed and developing countries.
Ideas and conclusions
- There is a scenario, that the future of security will be less about geopolitics and more about border control, state survival, and coping with threats of surveillance.
- Thus, states will either choose to be proactive in engaging with the global south, or act reactively in response to the emerging problems.
- Addressing government reactivity will be a significant challenge.
- Future of security should account for the dystopian future of surveillance, however it is unclear how this threat could be countered.
Feedback - Migration & demography breakout
Key discussion points
- Scale, pace and direction of demographic change is unprecedented… and likely to be less predictable from existing projections due to factors such as climate change, improved health and well-being, fertility changes and technology enabling longer-living.
- Our past and current approaches to managing migration, in particular, have not and will not keep up with these changes
- We will not be able to effectively plan and manage migration without understanding and responding to the causes… putting up barriers will not be enough.. Reactive approaches will be ineffective
- National and regional migration policies have either avoided or failed to debate with their electorate a number of key questions:
- Why we need immigration… and what would be the consequences of not having immigration?
- What kind of immigration do we want? How can it be geographically dispersed?
- How do we plan and manage it?
- Recognise that the impact of migration, goes to the heart of identity, culture and sense of community… and that these elements must be factored into the planning process
- too often this has been ignored or dismissed, often for reasons of political correctness
- It is inextricably linked to challenging and uncomfortable topics (e.g. birth and death)
Ideas and conclusions
- We have to answer the core questions about what kind of immigration we want and how we manage it…
- impacted communities need to be engaged & understood in the process
- a greater focus and responsibility for supporting integration into receiving communities
- infrastructure needed to support immigration and integration must be provided, particularly in urban areas which experience the highest rates of inward migration, resulting in emergence of megacities
- improved situational awareness regarding climate impact scenarios at national and regional levels
- We need to be sharper and more honest about what we mean by immigration and be more fact based and positive in its reporting. Distinguish between:
- labour mobility, which is needed to support socio-economic development
- asylum seekers (remembering that the vast majority arrive at legal ports of entry and not on floating rafts across the Mediterranean)
- legal (right to reside) and illegal immigration
- forced migration (conflict, drought, famine)
- We need bolder thinking…
- how do we enable migrants from the developing world to reside here for a time limited basis, develop skills, and support their return to the country of origin, where their learnings can be deployed?
- Rather than investing for absolute net-zero in U.K. emissions, there is an argument for diverting that investment to support sustainable development and employment opportunities in the developing world
- We need to take on the challenge of effective family planning and birth control
Feedback - Digital breakout
Key discussion points
- Merging the digital with the real world into an always-on cyber-physical sphere of human and machine collaboration.
- Challenges traditional economies and increases geo-political conflicts.
- Threatening dignity, privacy and freedom of the individual while challenging democratic foundations of society.
Ideas and conclusions
- Economical: Focus on digital niche markets, in order to generate industry leaders from Europe.
- Social: Ongoing education programmes for all citizens.
- Political: equality of wealth creation, access and democratic participation, while protecting the environment.
Feedback - Sustainability breakout
Key discussion points
- Agreement that we stand on the cusp of an environmental breakdown but that we have yet to see that matched with an urgency of action amongst government, business and civil society.
- We have as yet failed to understand the wider, disruptive implications of climate change on trade and economics, health and well-being, international security, migration, and social justice.
- We need bold solutions but too many of the political and financial/ business decisions still being taken today would lead to global warming well above the limit foreseen in the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Climate and sustainability issues are a system of interdependent problems, that can result in feedback loops and domino effects, further exacerbating the situation and increasing the speed of climate change.
- A strong belief that whilst the problem is unlikely to be solved but it can be effectively managed through multi-sector and multi-actor cooperation, which needs to be bottom up, as well as top down, and a far greater awareness of the individual personal responsibility for living more sustainably
Ideas and conclusions
- Common goals, vision, and commitment to action are crucial, which includes a cross party commitment to a legislative framework and agenda for managing the climate and sustainable development
- Business and civil society must also come together to forge new, pragmatic, and non-ideological solutions
- Resilience to environmental breakdowns should be improved and human consumption should be brought within sustainable limits.
- We value what we measure: we need regional and global cooperation to develop a common approach to climate accounting (e.g. extraction, production, consumption or sharing, or a combination)
- Financial investors can drive change in the businesses in which they invest – further develop and extend the ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance criteria), ensure that investors understand and rigorously apply them and hold companies to account.
- Best efforts must be made to promote sustainable projects and to pick “low-hanging fruit:
- Determined drive to phase our petrol-diesel vehicles
- Sustainable construction and re-fitting of new and older buildings
- Improvement in land use and decarbonisation
- Hard commitment from individuals and organisations to circular economy, (reinforced with incentives/ penalties)
- Also consider trade-offs: would the investment needed to achieve net zero emissions in the U.K. have greater impact being spent in supporting sustainable development in the developing world?
Feedback - Trade and economics breakout
Key discussion points
- Bilateralism vs Multilateralism
- Certain members of the multilateral system now prefer to negotiate bilateral agreements rather than focus on multilateral or plurilateral initiatives
- Proliferation of preferential trade agreements likely to continue in the short to medium term and address more trade in services as well as goods
- The return of power politics
- Weakening of the rules based system will favour strong actors over weak
- Mid-sized countries will need to work in concert in order to project their influence and values
- Tripolar system of US, EU and China will increase regionalisation of trade standards and norms in their respective economic zones
- The need for resilience
- A more uncertain world means that states need to ensure resilience and avoid overreliance on one partner
- Many states already seeking to diversify their trade relationships as well as to position themselves to reap benefits of the technological developments
Ideas and conclusions
- The future of the multilateral trading systems remains uncertain
- Countries will need to work together to ensure the continued functioning of the system, even if the threats are not yet existential
- The rate of economic change, driven by technological disruption, means that the existing rules are increasingly obsolete and will require updating, moreover, gaps in the legal framework will need to be addressed
- In democracies, Governments should adopt policies to ensure continued support for economic openness and interdependence
- Current tensions arising from structural shifts in global manufacturing are likely to spread to “white collar” industries previously not greatly impacted by globalisation
- Life long learning policies and other adjustment programmes will be needed to ensure labour mobility as automation, AI and increased trade in cross border services impact the economy and workforce in novel ways
- Flexibility and resilience will allow for states to navigate current period of uncertainty
- While short to medium term tensions are likely to persist, the system will survive, if not in its current form as new rules will be required as well as reforms to adjust for shifts in relative economic power - managing this transition flexibly will be essential to maintaining global economic prosperity
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