Documents

October 2024
The Northern Ireland Protocol and Why It Still Matters
This paper from WMC examines the role the Irish border issue played in the fraught Brexit withdrawal process: that is, its consequences both for the Brexit that eventually transpired and for the peace process, and no less significantly, for the future relations between the UK its erstwhile EU partners.
You can read the document here.

October 2024
Reconnecting the British to Europe: Strategic Imperatives and Inconvenient Truths
This paper from WMC illustrates three priority areas where greater UK–EU cooperation could take place: in environmental policy, in forming a European capital market and in defence. In addition, four further elements of civil society are viewed as being essential to tangibly reconnect the British with the heart of Europe on a practical level. These are reciprocal youth mobility, the re-engagement of civic interest groups, the UK rejoining Creative Europe, and the reinvigoration of town and city twinning initiatives.
You can read the document here.

October 2024
Interparty Relations in the European Parliament 1952–2024: Between Cooperative and Adversarial Politics
This paper from WMC examines trends in relations between party groups in the European Parliament since its inception, with a particular focus on the European People’s Party (EPP) and its prospective options for forging coalitions in the coming tenth legislative term.
You can read the document here.

July 2024
Immigration to Europe: The Big Picture for the EU and Its Member States
This paper from WMC analyses in detail the latest migration trends and patterns in Europe by looking at countries of origin, countries of destination and the types of residence permits issued during the period 2013–22. It also addresses the unique dynamics of 2022, with a focus on both the mass migration flows from other parts of the world to the EU in general and the massive inflow of displaced Ukrainians in particular.
You can read the document here.

June 2024
EU strategic agenda for 2024-2029
EU leaders have adopted the strategic agenda for 2024-2029, a policy plan that steers the EU’s future direction and goals.

You can read the strategic agenda here.

June 2024
European Council conclusions, 27 June 2024
On 27 June 2024, the European Council adopted conclusions on Ukraine, the Middle East, security and defence, competitiveness, other items, the next institutional cycle and a roadmap for future work on internal reforms.

You can read the conclusions here.

June 2024
Election coverage issued by the European Office of the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung on the 2024 European elections
The election report “European Elections from the Inside” presents the results of the 2024 elections to the European Parliament from a European and national perspective. Together with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung offices across Europe, a concise overview was compiled for each of the 27 member states of the European Union (EU), which analyses the results in the respective countries against the backdrop of current developments. The series of reports is intended to contribute to a deeper understanding of the overall outcome of the 2024 European elections. To access this document click here

April 2024
ESPAS Global Trends to 2040 Choosing Europe’s Future
The preparation of this report was a collaborative exercise drawing on the knowledge and expertise of colleagues across nine EU institutions and bodies, all of whom contribute to the inter-institutional ESPAS initiative. The report is available here.

April 2024
Emmanuel Macron: Europe — It Can Die. A New Paradigm at The Sorbonne – Groupe d’études géopolitiques
Now in English, the full text of Emmanuel Macron’s speech on Europe at the Sorbonne is available here.

April 2024
Much more than a market – Speed, Security, Solidarity. Empowering the Single Market to deliver a sustainable future and prosperity for all EU Citizens.


Read the full report here.

April 2024
Mario Draghi’s Speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights (Brussels, April 16, 2024)

To read the full report click here

July 2023
2023 Strategic Foresight Report on Sustainability and people’s wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy

The report proposes 10 areas for action to achieve the objectives of a socially and economically sustainable Europe with a stronger role in the world in the coming years. To read the full report click here

April 2024
The Digital World towards 2040
This report seeks not to predict but to provoke thought. It offers a panoramic view of AI’s potential impact on our world through the lenses of technology, economy and society. We aim for it to provide a basis for strategic thinking about Europe’s global position. The report’s author, Ajit Jaokar has engaged with keen thinkers about what AI would mean for Europe. Their insights have given fresh perspectives, all showing that AI will be a red thread through many new European policies over the next five years.

To access this document click here

February 2023
Welcome to 2033: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 160 experts – Atlantic Council
In the 2023 edition of Global Foresight, the Atlantic Council’s senior experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2023. Their foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2023 and beyond. And they share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

To access this document click here

January 2023
Markets of Tomorrow Report 2023: Turning Technologies into New Sources of Global Growth
The advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has led to wide-ranging opportunities from advanced technologies for business and government. In recent decades these technologies have often failed to deliver the promised game-changing results for the benefit of society, but there is growing evidence that dynamic governments and purpose-driven businesses are willing to shape a new era of public-private cooperation. A proactive approach and greater strategic planning are now required in order to create the “markets of tomorrow” that meet key societal needs.

To access this document click here

January 2023
Global Economic Prospects report
The crisis facing development is intensifying. The latest Global Economic Prospects report highlights why the outlook is particularly devastating for many of the poorest economies, where poverty reduction has already ground to a halt. Total debt among EMDEs is at a 50-year high, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added major new costs. This leaves no room for fiscal support at a time when people are still suffering from COVID-related setbacks in health, education and nutrition.

To access this document click here

December 2022
Artificial Intelligence: Threats and Opportunities for Europeans.
The public debate about Artificial Intelligence in the European Union has triggered the need to set a global standard for how to regulate these emerging technologies, but also properly assess possible consequences of moving forward with policy initiatives. This publication from the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies looks at the threat but also opportunities surrounding AI as well as ethical questions.

To access this document and a wide selection of other publications from the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies click here

2021
Shaping and securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond.
This report is part of the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda. Desk research, including literature review and policy analysis, synthetises existing knowledge on the current state and future possibilities in 2040 and beyond. The report presents an overview of Europe’s existing capacities, dependencies and vulnerabilities. It also describes trends and emerging issues, looking forward at how they could evolve over time, and looking at the opportunities and risks they entail. Find out more here.

November 2021
In the spring of 2019, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) issued its most recent, five-yearly Global Trends Report. Entitled ‘Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe’, To coincide with the latest ESPAS annual conference in November 2021, the ESPAS Steering Group issued a mid-term update that looks at what has changed over the last two and a half years, a period that has brought unexpected developments on several fronts. Find out more here.

September 2021
The second annual Strategic Foresight Report, ‘The EU’s capacity and freedom to act’, presents a forward-looking and multidisciplinary perspective on important trends affecting the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades, including: climate change and other environmental challenges, digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations, pressure on democracy and values, as well as shifts in the global order and demography. Find out more here.

March 2021
7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. Find out more here.

September 2020
The structure and output of the ESPAS process to date were summarised in an EPRS Briefing published in May 2020 (below). This parallel ESPAS Briefing now looks at the substance of the analysis contained in the successive ESPAS Global Trends Reports to date.

May 2020
This EPRS Briefing traces the origins of the ESPAS process and describes its operation to date, with the digital version of the briefing offering links to some of its key output since 2012.

April 2019
The ESPAS Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe report is a contribution to support policy- and decision-makers as they navigate the world into 2030. The report extrapolates insights from current global trends; explore some of the key uncertainties that will shape Europe’s future; and better anticipate some of the choices and decisions that might confront us in the coming decade.

The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe report presents the findings of the research conducted for the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) on global economic trends up to the horizon of 2030 and how they matter for Europe. The report builds on extensive analytical research, a wide-ranging review of the literature and simulations with two macroeconomic models, one of global scale and one for the EU, providing new perspectives on issues relevant for today’s policy debate.

March 2015
In 2011, the European Parliament gave the go-ahead for a second stage in the project – a so-called ‘Preparatory Action’ – with a view to putting in place by 2014 a permanent inter-institutional system to identify and analyse long-term trends.

In 2012, three inter-institutional working groups were set up to oversee an intensive analytical process, including outreach to those interested in engaging with ESPAS, in order to draft trend reports in three key fields: the economy, society, and governance and power. The process resulted in the publication of the report Global Trends to 2030: can the EU meet the challenges ahead?

Published in 2012, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, the report was aimed at stimulating strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. It distinguishes between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain.

November 2012
The EU in 2030: a long-term view of Europe in a changing world: keeping the values, changing the attitudes by Margaritis Schinas. This article surveys the challenges and opportunities identified in the ESPAS report Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World (report below).

ESPAS was initiated in 2010, when a pilot project launched by the European Parliament laid the foundations for cooperation and dialogue between the four participating organisations. The result of this pilot was the publication of a report in the spring of 2012 by the EUISS entitled ‘Global Trends 2030 – Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World’ which assessed the long-term political and economic environment facing the EU. The report identified several global trends that will shape the world in 2030.