5 February 2025 (16:00-17:00 UK time)
VIRTUAL CONVERSATION
EU and UK perspectives to 2030
Speaker: David McAllister MEP
Comments: James Rogers, Council on Geostrategy
Moderator: Felix Dane
> Introduction
> AI summary of event
> Meeting videos
> Speakers bios
Introduction
As we look ahead, the global order is undergoing a significant transformation. The unipolar world of the past is giving way to a more fragmented geopolitical landscape, where no single power holds dominance. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia underscores the reality that not all major players adhere to a multilateral, rules-based order, with the conflict’s outcome and long-term impact still uncertain. Instability appears to be a persistent feature of the coming decades. This will be compounded by the unpredictability of the US Administration. How will the US develop its foreign policy given the aims already set out by incoming President Trump? How will the EU address putting its own house in order? And will China’s continued rise in economic and diplomatic influence see it align with other authoritarian states, such as Russia, North Korea, and Iran, to challenge democratic governance and existing international frameworks?
AI summary of the virtual conversation
Here’s a summary of the key points from the discussion discussion between David McAllister (Chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee) and James Rogers (from the Council on Geostrategy).
Key Strategic Context:
1. Changing Geopolitical Landscape
• The post-Cold War order has given way to a more fragmented, contested landscape
• Autocracies are rising and the rules-based international order faces significant challenges
• The emergence of what British strategists call “KRINK” (alignment between Korea, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China)
2. European Economic Position
• Europe has experienced significant relative decline compared to the US
• In 2005, the US economy was only 10% larger than the EU’s; by 2025 it’s 50% larger
• This economic shift affects Europe’s ability to fund defense capabilities
3. Ukraine Conflict and Response
• Viewed as fundamental attack on European security order, not just a regional conflict
• Strong EU-UK alignment on supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes”
• Demonstrates potential for EU-UK cooperation despite Brexit
Current EU-UK Relations:
1. Positive Developments
• UK PM’s recent attendance at EU defense discussions in Brussels
• Agreement on need for closer defense cooperation
• UK joining specific projects like military mobility under PESCO
2. Institutional Challenges
• No formal framework for foreign/security policy cooperation in Trade & Cooperation Agreement
• First EU-UK summit since Brexit scheduled for May 2025
• Need for “future-proof” arrangements that can survive political changes
Proposed Areas for Cooperation:
1. Defense Industrial Collaboration
• Joint procurement opportunities
• Research and development cooperation
• Potential UK participation in European Defence Fund
• Need to include UK in European defense industry development
2. Institutional Framework Proposals
• Regular strategic consultations at political level
• Joint working groups between EU institutions and UK representatives
• UK participation in select European Council meetings
• Potential administrative agreement with European Defence Agency
Funding Challenges:
1. Scale of Investment Needed
• Estimated €500 billion required for European defense
• Current NATO spending shows US provides 64% vs 36% from all other members
• Need to increase from current 2-3% GDP spending levels
2. Funding Solutions Debated
• Potential role for European Investment Bank
• Need to attract private capital
• Question of common EU debt vs national spending
• Political rather than purely financial challenge
Future Challenges:
1. Political Uncertainties
• Rising populist parties in UK and across Europe
• US election implications for transatlantic relations
• Need for arrangements that can survive political changes
2. Strategic Imperatives
• Reducing dependence on US security guarantee
• Building European strategic autonomy
• Maintaining strong transatlantic links while developing European capabilities
The discussion concluded with a powerful historical reference to Konrad Adenauer’s 1950 observation that Europe cannot indefinitely rely on US protection and must develop its own capabilities – a message that remains relevant 75 years later.
Overall, the webinar revealed broad agreement on the need for closer EU-UK defense cooperation but highlighted significant practical and political challenges in achieving it. Both speakers emphasized the urgency of action given the deteriorating security environment while acknowledging the complexity of developing sustainable institutional frameworks and funding mechanisms.
Meeting videos
Click above to watch Felix Dane’s introduction and main presentation by David McAllister MEP (18 min video).
Click above to watch the response from James Rogers, Council on Geostrategy (9 min video).
Click above to watch the Q&A session (31 min video).
Speakers biographies
David McAllister MEP
David McAllister is a German politician who has been a member of the European Parliament since 2014. He is a member of the Christian Democratic Union, part of the European People’s Party. He is the current chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs.
David was born in Berlin in 1971 where he grew up with his father James (a British civil servant), his mother Mechthild (a music teacher) and his two sisters. In 1982, his parents moved from Berlin to Bad Bederkesa. He still lives there today with his wife and two daughters.
He finished secondary school in 1989 and joined the German army from 1989 till 1991. From 1991 till 1996 he studied law at Hanover University with a scholarship awarded by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. He did his 1st State Exam in Law in 1996, and his 2nd State Exam in 1998. He has been a lawyer ever since. He received an Honorary Doctorate from Edinburgh University in 2012. He is a fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the US.
His political career started in 1998 becoming a Member of the State Parliament of Lower Saxony (until 2014). He was also the Mayor of his hometown Bad Bederkesa from 2001-2002, Secretary-General of the CDU in Lower Saxony from 2002-2003, and Chairman of the CDU Group in the State Parliament from 2003-2010. He was Party Chairman of the CDU in Lower Saxony from 2008-2016. He served as Prime Minister of Lower Saxony from 2010 till 2013. Member of the CDU Executive Committee since February 2014. MEP since July 2014. Since November 2014 Vice President of IDU (International Democrat Union). Since October 2015 Vice President of the EPP (European People’s Party).
He finished secondary school in 1989 and joined the German army from 1989 till 1991. From 1991 till 1996 he studied law at Hanover University with a scholarship awarded by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. He did his 1st State Exam in Law in 1996, and his 2nd State Exam in 1998. He has been a lawyer ever since. He received an Honorary Doctorate from Edinburgh University in 2012. He is a fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the US.
His political career started in 1998 becoming a Member of the State Parliament of Lower Saxony (until 2014). He was also the Mayor of his hometown Bad Bederkesa from 2001-2002, Secretary-General of the CDU in Lower Saxony from 2002-2003, and Chairman of the CDU Group in the State Parliament from 2003-2010. He was Party Chairman of the CDU in Lower Saxony from 2008-2016. He served as Prime Minister of Lower Saxony from 2010 till 2013. Member of the CDU Executive Committee since February 2014. MEP since July 2014. Since November 2014 Vice President of IDU (International Democrat Union). Since October 2015 Vice President of the EPP (European People’s Party).
James Rogers
James Rogers is Co-founder and Director of Research at the Council on Geostrategy, where he specialises in geopolitics and British strategic policy. He has pioneered work on Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific connectivities and strategic advantage. Previously, he held a range of positions, including at the Baltic Defence College and the European Union Institute for Security Studies. He has been invited to give oral evidence at the Foreign Affairs, Defence, European Affairs, and International Development committees in the Houses of Parliament. He holds an MPhil in Contemporary European Studies from the University of Cambridge and an award-winning BSc Econ (Hons) in International Politics and Strategic Studies from the University of Wales, Aberystwyth.
James has appeared on Times Radio, Sky News and LBC Radio and has written for Times Red Box, the Kyiv Independent, The Spectator and CityAM and been quoted in Newsweek.
Felix Dane