Oct 2025 – Virtual Conversation

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Introduction

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Immigration remains one of the most politically contested issues in the UK, with the central question of UK membership of the European Convention on Human Rights now at the forefront of policy debate, as well as questions over the Refugee Convention. The panel discussion will cover the various legal questions which have given rise to unease and hostility towards immigrants across Europe, as well as other policy measures which are available to Governments to reduce illegal migration.

So, as well as the immediate legal questions, the panel will examine the longer-term demographic pressures facing Europe, particularly massive migration flows from the South and how these connect to broader structural challenges. Participants will consider the relationship between AI driven job displacement and immigration policy requirements, whilst distinguishing between seasonal agricultural workers and permanent immigrants. The aim is to generate fresh thinking on how migration policy can address both constitutional questions around international legal frameworks and the fundamental demographic realities that will shape migratory patterns in the years ahead, moving beyond reactive crisis management towards a more strategic and sustainable approach.

Questions that will be discussed during the event will include:

• What can centre-right politicians propose to avoid losing the issue to the populist right?
• What is the right combination of legal changes and other actions, such as the introduction of Digital ID which would be effective?
• Are we brave enough to design an immigration policy that matches demographic reality and technological change, or are we stuck managing public fear and short-term headlines?

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AI summary of Virtual Conversation

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This meeting of the Ideas Network examined the challenges facing centre-right politicians on immigration policy across Europe and the United Kingdom, focusing on how moderate parties can address public concerns whilst avoiding populist rhetoric.

The discussion featured Nick Timothy, Member of Parliament for West Suffolk, and Victor Bojkov, senior research officer at the Wilfred Martens Centre in Brussels. The speakers analysed the social, economic, and democratic pressures created by mass migration, encompassing legal and illegal immigration flows, integration challenges, and the rise of Islamism.

Main points:

Fiscal impact: Research indicated most migrant profiles represent significant net costs, with some calculations suggesting £400,000 per person over a lifetime. Infrastructure struggles to keep pace, with population growth through immigration vastly exceeding construction of necessary hospitals, housing, and schools.

• Legal versus illegal immigration: Approximately 75 per cent of EU immigration flows arrived through entitlements such as asylum or family reunification. Illegal immigration, though numerically smaller, generates disproportionate concern due to visibility, particularly channel crossings between France and the UK, now Europe's most frequented illegal route.
• Successful approaches: Denmark created a national consensus on restrictive immigration policies that marginalised far-right parties. Greece and Poland demonstrated that centre-right governments could campaign successfully on immigration restrictions. The key was addressing public concerns seriously rather than dismissing them.
• Effective deterrence: Control requires either physical barriers or credible deterrence through swift processing and removal. The EU's agreements with Turkey and Tunisia dramatically reduced arrivals, demonstrating such arrangements could prove effective.

Questions and discussion:

The session addressed national identity cards, noting Denmark's success despite being the only EU state without them, and discussed the English language as a UK attractor. European governments reportedly sought reform of the European Court of Human Rights and Refugee Convention rather than withdrawal.

The speakers concluded that effective policy required honest engagement with public concerns, nuanced communication distinguishing between migration types, and political courage to implement genuinely restrictive measures. The challenge for centre-right parties was developing sustainable, credible policies rather than merely reacting to far-right provocations.